Kotare

Watch Your Back

I agree with this BBC article (via New Risks), which sets out lessons that modern politicians can learn from the study of classical history:

"If there's one thing the classics gives you, it's a sense of what a precarious business being in charge is....Future emperors had to watch out for children, wives, bodyguards, and generals. And who to delegate power to remains one of the key challenges for any leader."

According to Suetonius, the Roman emperor Tiberius said that exercising power is like holding a wolf by the ears. In a remarkable passage from The Annals of Imperial Rome, Tacitus captures the moment when Tiberius realizes that he and his offspring are doomed: "Then, weeping bitterly and clasping his grandson Tiberius Gemellus, he said to the frowning Gaius [Caligula]: 'You will kill him! And someone else will kill you!'" (VI, 46).

It's not just politicians who can learn a thing or two from the classics. As I wrote in 'Prince of Downfalls', by reading the classical authors we learn to recognize the cloaked tactics of the calculating and the cruel, and the peril inherent in any relationship of power.

Gurkhas of the South Pacific

It's well known that the British army has its own foreign legion in the form of the Gurkhas - Nepalese soldiers who have fought for the British since the early 19th century. At present, around 3500 Nepalese serve in the Brigade of Gurkhas.

What's less known is that over 2000 Fijians are also serving in the British army (h/t Glamdring). The British like the Fijians because they are good soldiers and provide manpower for understrength infantry battalions. The Fijians are lured by good wages and steady jobs. In the Royal Regiment of Scotland, almost one soldier in ten is Fijian, and several Fijians have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Recently, the Sydney Morning Herald suggested that the Australian army could also recruit Pacific Islanders for service in the 'Arc of Instability'. The Interpreter took issue with this, partly on the basis that hiring large numbers of Fijian soldiers could compromise Australian army operations if it had to "deploy to Fiji".

This is a good point, but there's a more important issue at stake. Since 1987, Fiji has experienced three military coups and a great deal of unrest (including another coup, and a mutiny). The country is presently ruled by a military strongman, Commodore Frank Bainimarama. Having large numbers of ex-mercenaries hanging about, whether British or Australian-trained, plus serving and former members of the Fiji Military Forces, does not augur well for future stability.

Autumn Weather

I took this shot in the Bolton St cemetery yesterday. The cemetery is Wellington's oldest, and sprawls across a woody hillslope between the CBD and the inner city suburb of Thorndon. Grave stones jostle for space with a riot of trees, shrubs and flowering plants. Wellington's earliest citizens are buried here, including some of my forebears. The area is popular with office workers out jogging or taking a lunch-time stroll.

Photo: Kotare.

Time Up On the Clock?

R W Johnson writes here about Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, and the stolen election. This is an excellent essay at a number of levels, but it is especially valuable for revealing how South African President Thabo Mbeki - "Mugabe's most loyal supporter" - conspired to keep the despot in power.

Johnson believes that Mugabe's time is almost up, but that his fall could be accompanied by a "final paroxysm of terror":

"...by June inflation in Zimbabwe will reach 500,000 per cent. All normal life will become impossible sometime before then. Mugabe's rule can continue so long as there are well-armed and well-paid men willing to protect him, but we are now close to the Papa Doc model and rule by the Tonton Macoute."

>> "Ripe for Revolt?"

Unfair Process, Durable Peace?

In A Secret History of the IRA (reviewed here) Ed Moloney explains how, after Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement in 1998, IRA stonewalling over weapons decommissioning, and the willingness of the British and Irish governments to indulge IRA prevarications, benefited the political extremes in Northern Ireland politics.

Among Unionists (Protestant Irish), support flowed from the moderate Ulster Unionist Party to the hard line Democratic Unionist Party, led by Rev Ian Paisley, as unionists feared that only the hard men could hold the Provos to account. Among Nationalists, support for the moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party collapsed in favour of Sinn Fein, the political wing of Irish republicanism. In March 2007, two years after the IRA finally surrendered its weapons, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein agreed to a power sharing deal in Northern Ireland. Paisley became First Minister and Sinn Fein's Martin MacGuiness (a long-time lieutenant of Gerry Adams) became deputy First Minister.

An Online Afghanistan

This BBC article outlines how terrorists could use virtual worlds to advance their causes:

"There's more of a chance of things like Jihadi worlds coming online in the next five years. The visual richness of virtual worlds made them good places to educate recruits about techniques. We can see groups emerging in cyber spaces and virtual communities that would be wholly radical. They would organise and radicalise in virtual worlds and attack using cyber methods without becoming a real world presence in any real way."

A problem for insurgents is finding secure areas in which to train and rehearse attacks, especially groups that operate in densely populated urban or rural areas. During its campaign against British rule in Northern Ireland, the Provisional IRA had to choose its training areas carefully, to avoid detection by British and Irish security forces.

A related problem, for terrorist networks that are dispersed regionally or globally, is connecting instructors and recruits. Before 9/11, jihadis went to training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now, with US and NATO forces operating in the Afghan/Pakistan theatre, this approach is increasingly circumscribed. As for secure websites - these are useful for indoctrination but offer only limited scope for instruction. Could virtual worlds provide insurgent and terrorist groups with a solution?

A Tyrant's Worst Nightmare

These satellite photos of Burma's Irawaddy River, taken before and after Cyclone Nargis slammed into the delta, show the extent of the disastrous flooding that occurred.

Not surprisingly, the Burmese military junta is refusing to allow foreign aid to the victims of the flooding unless it controls the distribution. A disaster like this is a tyrant's worst nightmare, but not for any humane reasons.

Reading of Warrior-Poets

I was browsing in a bookstore this afternoon, not really intending to buy anything, but just happened to have my wallet with me. And who could resist buying a book with a title and blurb like this?

Sagas of Warrior-Poets

"An Icelandic champion famed for dragon-slaying abroad is ambushed by twenty-four men in a rock-strewn meadow. He offers a desperate defence using the shears with which he was about to trim his horses' manes...A famous poet and fighter spends an illicit night at the summer pastures with a woman he failed to marry long before. Her husband has no choice but to seek redress."

This is a Penguin Classics translation of five Icelandic sagas involving warrior-poets, or skalds. Having read Beowulf, of course, the two cycles of Sigurd, King Hrolf Kraki and other Norse heroes, and the Prose Edda (the stories of the Norse gods), I've long intended to read more deeply into the Icelandic sagas. Sagas of the Warrior-Poets should provide great reading for dark winter nights.

Policing the Pirate Straits

In this video clip, Robin Brant reports on Malaysian efforts to combat piracy in the Straits of Malacca, a vital global sea lane for the flow of goods, raw materials, and energy. Behind the scenes, the United States and Japan are driving the anti-piracy effort, for example by training Malaysian personnel.

It's interesting to speculate whether this American assistance is an example of the new US maritime strategy in action. As I wrote in this post:

"...a strategy is about ends, ways and means. A key end for the US maritime strategy is ensuring that energy (oil) flows smoothly from exporting countries to the US and its allies. The ways involve policing the world's strategic waterways and coastlines with a mix of force, cooperation, diplomacy and humanitarian assistance. And the means are the US maritime forces - the navy, marine corps and coastguard - working with like-minded navies and coastguards around the world." 

>> "Pirate Straits"

Hidden Places: Merlin's Grave

Nestled in a tranquil and bushy suburb of Wellington is the Karori Servicemen's Cemetery, a resting place for war veterans who died on active service or afterwards.

Some of New Zealand's most famous warriors are buried here, including Major General Sir Howard Kippenburger, the famous WW2 commander in the 2nd NZ Division, and Major William Harding VC, the mounted rifleman who won the Victoria Cross in the South African War 1899-1902. Not just New Zealanders are buried here: many men who served with British forces, and who subsequently emigrated to New Zealand, are also interred in the cemetary.

One of the more colourful is a Russian, Boris Merlin, who rose to the rank of major general in the Imperial Russian army. Born in St Petersburg in 1873, Merlin served as a staff officer in the Russo-Japanese War 1904-05, subsequently on the Grand General Staff, and as a military attache in London and Tokyo. Just before the outbreak of World War One, Merlin was posted to Bucharest in Romania, to monitor the alliance between Germany and the Austro-Hungarian empire, and the traffic through Romanian posts to and from the Ottoman empire.

After fighting the Germans, Merlin was caught up in the chaos of the Russian Revolution (1917) and the subsequent Civil War (1918-23). Merlin joined the anti-Bolshevik forces (the 'White Russians'), served under the dictator Admiral Kolchak in the fighting against the Bolsheviks in the Urals and Siberia, and was appointed Governor of Eastern Siberia. When the Bolsheviks took control, Merlin, his wife and staff fled Russia with the help of the Japanese.

In 1920 Merlin arrived in Wellington. After a tumultuous life of war, revolution, and intrigue, he settled down to quiet employment as a translator and interpreter in the New Zealand General Post Office. Major General Merlin died in 1949. 

(Photo: Kotare.)

Rule the Waves

Paul Easton recently speculated in the Dominion Post that New Zealand's underwater territory is on the verge of "lucratively" expanding. This follows a UN ruling that Australia can extend its underwater jurisdiction by 2.5 million square kilometres. NZ has a similar claim, covering 1.7 million square kilometres of seabed. Hopes are high that this claim will also get the nod.

That's great, I thought, as I read this, but there's no point in having extra territory if we can't police it. The 21st century is a time of burgeoning populations, increasingly scarce land, water, minerals and food, and heightened competition and conflict between nation-states and other groups for control of resources. New Zealand's rich waters, and those of our neighbours - Australia and Pacific island countries - offer tempting prospects to outsiders. We need to ensure that outsiders don't illegally or unsustainably exploit the resources of our maritime region. But our defence force is ill-equipped to deal with such threats.

In the article, Easton quotes Peter Cozens, the director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University, as saying that "New Zealand would have to ensure that the new resources were not exploited". I was intrigued by this comment, and emailed Mr Cozens asking for clarification: "Did you mean...that New Zealand would need to invest in additional defence capabilities (such as maritime patrol and surveillance) to make sure that it could control any extended seabed territory?"

Spreading the Word

Here are three posts that I've enjoyed reading this week:

• Zenpundit on how the study and teaching of military history is being neglected in American colleges and universities - "If American military historians had fur, fangs or feathers it is a safe bet that they would have a place of honor on the Endangered Species List". Luckily, military historians are in big demand with the US Department of Defense.

• The Capitol Tribune with a comparison between the two great men of the American Civil War: Generals Robert E Lee and Ulysses Grant. Jeff mentioned to me in an email that he'd once been a Civil War reenactor: "It was fun and very educational. The camping out, drinking, telling stories, and inviting the ladies back to camp wasn't bad either now that I think about it...".

• The Ex-Expat on why she is visiting North Korea: "I do not enter North Korea with the naivety of a political studies student punch-drunk on the writings of Marx nor just for the thrill of an unusual passport stamp (because my passport will not be stamped) but with a curiosity to find out why this state and its people cling to an ideology that has long been discredited by the West...".

Peak Oil Nutters

Mark Hertsgaard on James Schlesinger and those other peak oil nutters:

"Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James Schlesinger declared that the "peakists" were right. You don't get closer to the American establishment and energy business than Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to countless oil companies....

Schlesinger said, 'It's no longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness. The battle is over. The peakists have won.'"

A Secret History of the IRA

Ed Moloney's A Secret History of the IRA (2007) is less the story of one of the world's most enduring guerrilla organizations. It is more an account of Gerry Adams, his rise to power in the Provisional IRA and Sinn Fein (the political wing of Irish republicanism), and his secret negotiations with the British and Irish governments, which led to the Northern Ireland peace process and the Good Friday agreement of 1998.

It also details the way that Adams and his lieutenants stealthily manipulated the grassroots IRA into accepting the peace process and its outcomes. These included Sinn Fein's entry into representative politics, a permanent cessation of hostilities by the IRA, and the decommissioning of IRA weapons - all of which had once been anathema to IRA members.

Vengeance is Mine

Jared Diamond has written a superb article on how vengeance drives tribal fighting in the New Guinea highlands. The clans of the Nipa tribe, who live in Southern Highlands province of Papua New Guinea, exist in a perpetual and shifting state of warfare and alliances with other clans and tribes.

"Fighting among the Nipas differs in several respects from fighting among other New Guinea Highland groups, such as the Baliem Valley Dani....Dani public battles emerged as somewhat ritualized, announced in advance by the issuance of challenges, confined to daylight hours, and abandoned in case of rain. By contrast, Nipa fighting is unannounced and takes place day or night, rain or shine, so clans must be always on the alert. Warriors post guards constantly, up to ten kilometres away from their village, in order to protect their houses, families, gardens, and domestic animals."

Diamond compares the non-state societies of the Highlands, where individuals and clans themselves seek vengeance for wrongs (either through violence or compensation) to modern western societies, where the state takes this role, often at considerable psychological cost to the victims.

>> "The Dawn of Warfare"

>> "In Praise of Peltasts"

Foot in Mouth, Again!

Oh dear. Once again, when it comes to international affairs, Hillary Clinton has put her foot in it:

Interviewer: "You have any good jokes?"

Clinton: "Here's a good one. Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand: her opponents have observed that in the event of a nuclear war, the two things that will emerge from the rubble are the cockroaches and Helen Clark. [Laughs]"

Ummm. Now, I guess most Kiwis don't expect Americans to know much about a small South Pacific country. New Zealand doesn't have big oil reserves, and we live far away from strategic flashpoints and sea lanes. Henry Kissinger is reputed to have quipped that New Zealand is a strategic dagger pointing at the heart of Antarctica.

But for a presidential hopeful who has talked up her foreign policy credentials, you'd think that Clinton would know that Clark is still New Zealand's prime minister. You might also expect Clinton to be circumspect about comparing heads of state, current or former, to cockroaches.

What will she come up with next?

Via Global Dashboard.

Anzac Day Memory: The Unknown Warrior

A soldier stands guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior, Wellington, Anzac Day (photo: Kotare).

Anzac Day Memory: Missing in Action

Detail on a family wreath at the Ataturk Memorial, Wellington (photo: Kotare). 

Lance Corporal William Woods fought at Gallipoli in 1915 with the Wellington Infantry Battalion.

On 8 August the Wellingtons seized the vital high ground of Chunuk Bair, as part of a strategic offensive by British and colonial forces. Two Turkish regiments were committed to hurl the New Zealanders from the summit. Across the contested hill-top, New Zealanders and Turks fought hand to hand with rifles, bayonets and bombs while artillery and naval shells exploded all around. The battle raged throughout the day and abated only when darkness fell.

"It was just a mad whirl as far as I'm concerned; it's just a mad whirl but I can hear this in the background, I can hear this very, very clearly, I heard it then and I can hear it at times today: 'Get the bastard before he gets you.'"

The Battalion's commanding officer, Lieutenant Colonel William George Malone, was killed in the late afternoon. Described as a 'fearless leader of men', Malone had led his men in counter-attacks which drove the Turks back from the summit. It is not known when and how Woods was killed, but like most of the New Zealanders who died on Chunuk Bair, his body was never found. 

Anzac Day Memory

Missing.

Photo: Kotare.

MiG-29 vs UAV

First I brought you this video of Dutch Apache attack helicopters in Afghanistan.

Now, here's footage of a Russian MiG-29 fighter shooting down an "unarmed, unmanned [Georgian] aerial vehicle...performing basic reconnaissance over Georgian territory".

Via The Interpreter.